The Boulder Mountain area, including the Fremont River and Escalante Ranger Districts of US Forest Service (USFS), is considered a top state priority focal conservation area by WRI and The Nature Conservancy. A concern of the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources is the decline of the local mule deer population, perhaps caused by the degrading condition of aspen stands. WRI and The Nature Conservancy want to take advantage of USFS proposed NEPA planning at the Fremont River Ranger District (Fishlake National Forest), and anticipated NEPA planning at the Escalante Ranger District (Dixie National Forest), to map vegetation with high resolution and accuracy, and to identify with quantitative models the most feasible of several alternative management scenarios that will achieve the greatest conservation outcomes, including the reversal of the current mule deer population decline on Boulder Mountain. Landscape Conservation Forecasting, used by The Nature Conservancy in several USFS, BLM, and NPS projects in Utah and Nevada (Low et al. 2010; Provencher et al. 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016a&b, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021b; Tuhy et al. 2010a&b, 2014), will be used to map vegetation at high spatial resolution and compare the ecological benefits of USFS NEPA alternative scenarios in FY2022-2023

Eight major objectives will be completed by June 30, 2022: a) Upload new remote-sensed rasters of ecological systems, vegetation classes, land ownership (USFS, private, state, others) into ST-Sim simulation software after translation of field codes to model nomenclature and quality control. Due date July 30, 2022; b) Upload to ST-Sim remaining spatial control rasters for livestock grazing supplied by USFS. Due date September 30, 2022 or pending USFS delivery; c) Run "custodial" (i.e., do-nothing proposed action alternative) spatial simulations for at most 35 years. Due date September 30, 2022; d) Conduct first partner management workshop to (no later than October 30, 2022): a. Review vegetation maps b. Introduction to Landscape Conservation Forecasting c. Set general management objectives d. Review draft custodial scenario assumptions and results e. Define USFS proposed action alternatives by district and duration of simulations f. Define probable time-varying annual budgets for proposed alternatives for duration of simulation g. Define focal systems receiving proposed actions, most likely treatments actions used (e.g., Rx Fire), cost per acre, success/failure rates and outcomes of proposed actions h. Time allowing, review results of "straw-person" management scenario i. Next steps; e) Run draft proposed alternative management scenarios. Due date: March 7th, 2023; f) Conduct second partner management workshop to (no later than March 15, 2023): a. Review past steps b. Review results and revise treatment implementation rates of draft proposed management alternatives c. Next steps; g) Run final version of proposed alternative management scenarios and analyze. Due data: May 1st, 2023; h) Write final report. Due date: June 30th, 2023.

Risks to UDWR - Not getting sin time spatial constraint rasters for cattle and sheep grazing from USFS; allotment and pastures, species of use, season of use, stock water locations, AUMs or # heads of livestock by allotment/pasture, year of grazing/rest - Selecting too many focal managed ecological systems of the 38 mapped - Retaining too many similar USFS proposed alternative management scenarios balancing timber and range management - Conflicts about sources of herbivory that degrade mule deer habitat and aspen systems that can hinder modeling efficiency - Inability to propose a solution to recover mule deer population without a mule deer habitat suitability model Risks to WRI - Difficulty facilitating coordination between US Forest Service, UDWR, and livestock operators - Description of ecological systems and vegetation map and models will not meet expectations of USFS for timber, northern goshawk, and at-risk species management and prevent defensible project submission to WRI - Satisfactory state-and-transition simulation models will not be applicable to USFS's NEPA assessment and help mitigate the decline of the mule deer population Risks to USFS - Ecological systems and vegetation classes will not reflect management needs for timber harvest and at-risk species, and lead to unsatisfactory NEPA planning - Description of conifer systems and vegetation classes could be used for potential litigation by groups that oppose timber extraction, even for at-risk species management - USFS proposed action alternatives will not translate well to state-and-transition simulation modeling and not be useful for NEPA documentation.

This project will prepare data, documents, maps, and models that will inform the new NEPA assessment for the Fremont River Ranger District and prepare data for the Escalante Ranger District's when NEPA will be undertaken. The project should also inform WRI's management of the high-profiler Boulder Mountain priority focal area.

Map and modelling products will be used for timber, fuels and fire management

In the short term there will be no effect on water quantity or quality. In the long term, results derived from data preparation could result in a reduction of debris flows due to reduced likelihood of high-severity uncharacteristic large fires. Also, forest thinning that opens closed-canopy high-elevation conifer forests to about 30% canopy cover and subalpine forest narrow gap creation perpendicular to warmest winter sunrays on northern slopes could result in increased runoff (Hardy et al. 2004; Ellis et al. 2013; Seyednasrollah et al. 2013).

This project requires no compliance documentation as no form of disturbance is involved. This project will however facilitate the completion of NEPA assessments and ESA Section 7 consultation. The mechanism for this facilitation lies in the quality of products that will be created and will result in the "best available science."

a) New ecological systems and vegetation class map layered delivered by contractor Spatial Solutions Inc by June 30th, 2022 to TNC, UDWR, and USFS will be a) translated from short-hand field codes to ST-Sim (simulation software) model codes (names and 8-digit numbers); b) quality controlled during the translation process with additional verification of suspicious vegetation assignments, if needed; and c) resample from Spot 6/7 native satellite resolution of 1.5m to either 25m or 30m resolution using TNC's Python script to resample while retaining small patch systems and vegetation classes valuable to wildlife species. Resampling is needed stay within hardware and software memory limitations. The resample map layers and the land ownership map resampled at the same scale of 25 or 30-m will be directly uploaded into ST-Sim; b) To conduct simulations fully representing the desired complexity of livestock grazing, USFS will be suppling shape files that TNC will convert to rasters to be uploaded into ST-Sim. TNC's experience with such grazing refinements is that they take time to assemble and translate into something useful for modeling. While the request for this information was requested in Year #1, TNC fully expect to receive some shape files after July 1st, 2022. Uploading and creating a reasonable grazing submodel in ST-Sim is time consuming and will be approached as a partitioning of total AUMs or heads of livestock using ST-Sim Target Attributes menu. In addition to grazing rasters, all other spatial constraints raster not added to the model in Year 1 will be incorporated such as Digital Elevation Models, fire ignition rasters, sensitive species protection zones, no management zones, and so on. c) After assembly of the ST-Sim database, TNC will spatially run 20 climate-based replicates of the "custodial" (i.e., do-nothing proposed action alternative) scenario for 35 years at most. d) The first partner management workshop will hopefully be conducted in either Escalante or Loa/Torrey area depending on the choice of partners. TNC management, mapping, GIS, and modeling staff will organize and lead/moderate the meeting where agency line officers and specialists are needed and other stakeholders welcome up to a maximum of 25 participants. The workshop covers much needed information and concepts, some difficult, and will require 2.5 continuous days. e) Using workshop data and prescription of management scenarios, TNC staff will populate the treatment implementation menu of ST-Sim and run all draft scenarios using only 10 replicates (20 replicates might be used for final report results). f) The second partner management workshop will hopefully be conducted in another location not selected for the first workshop (Escalante or Loa/Torrey area). TNC management, mapping, GIS, and modeling staff will organize and lead/moderate the meeting where agency line officers and specialists are needed and other stakeholders welcome up to a maximum of 25 participants. The primary and most time-consuming objective is to review draft results from scenarios and revise treatment implementation rates, if needed. g) Using the revised treatment rates of each proposed management alternative, TNC will run the final version of proposed alternative management scenarios while respecting budget limitations, and analyze vegetation results using the Unified Ecological Departure metric (Provencher et al. 2021a) and ecological return-on-investment (Low et al 2010, Provencher et al. 2013). h) TNC will write a final report using the same template submitted to WRI for project WRI #4823 (introduction, methods, system by system result analysis with annual treatment prescriptions, and maps of treatment implementation).

Objective to build state-and-transition simulation model that can be monitored for completion.

The partners are the US Forest Service Fishlake and Escalante National Forests, UDWR, and The Nature Conservancy as products will support USFS NEPA assessments and UDWR's effort to recover the Boulder Mountain mule deer population. The area of interest is also of very high conservation value to TNC.

The purpose of this project is to start an integrated mapping of ecological systems, assessment of forest, range, and riparian condition, and development and testing of management scenarios. Management scenarios will consist of on-the-ground actions in forest, shrubland management, and riparian management to demonstrate where forecasted actions can be shown to be most effective for natural resources condition at the lowest cost.

The potential for increased sustainable use for mule deer and vegetation in general from this project will be assess assessment and has a high likelihood to produce benefits for sustainable use.

07/01/2022

08/30/2023

2024

Final Methods a) New ecological systems and vegetation class map layered delivered by contractor Spatial Solutions Inc by June 30th, 2022 to TNC, UDWR, and USFS will be a) translated from short-hand field codes to ST-Sim (simulation software) model codes (names and 8-digit numbers); b) quality controlled during the translation process with additional verification of suspicious vegetation assignments, if needed; and c) resample from Spot 6/7 native satellite resolution of 1.5m to either 25m or 30m resolution using TNC's Python script to resample while retaining small patch systems and vegetation classes valuable to wildlife species. Resampling is needed stay within hardware and software memory limitations. The resample map layers and the land ownership map resampled at the same scale of 25 or 30-m will be directly uploaded into ST-Sim; b) To conduct simulations fully representing the desired complexity of livestock grazing, USFS will be suppling shape files that TNC will convert to rasters to be uploaded into ST-Sim. TNC's experience with such grazing refinements is that they take time to assemble and translate into something useful for modeling. While the request for this information was requested in Year #1, TNC fully expect to receive some shape files after July 1st, 2022. Uploading and creating a reasonable grazing submodel in ST-Sim is time consuming and will be approached as a partitioning of total AUMs or heads of livestock using ST-Sim Target Attributes menu. In addition to grazing rasters, all other spatial constraints raster not added to the model in Year 1 will be incorporated such as Digital Elevation Models, fire ignition rasters, sensitive species protection zones, no management zones, and so on. c) After assembly of the ST-Sim database, TNC will spatially run 20 climate-based replicates of the "custodial" (i.e., do-nothing proposed action alternative) scenario for 35 years at most. d) The first partner management workshop will hopefully be conducted in either Escalante or Loa/Torrey area depending on the choice of partners. TNC management, mapping, GIS, and modeling staff will organize and lead/moderate the meeting where agency line officers and specialists are needed and other stakeholders welcome up to a maximum of 30 participants. The workshop covers much needed information and concepts, some difficult, and will require 2.5 continuous days. e) Using workshop data and prescription of management scenarios, TNC staff will populate the treatment implementation menu of ST-Sim and run all draft scenarios using only 10 replicates (20 replicates might be used for final report results). f) The second partner management workshop will be conducted in Escalante. TNC management, mapping, GIS, and modeling staff will organize and lead/moderate the meeting where agency line officers and specialists are needed and other stakeholders welcome up to a maximum of 25 participants. The primary and most time-consuming objective is to review draft results from scenarios and revise treatment implementation rates, if needed. g) Using the revised treatment rates of each proposed management alternative, TNC will run the final version of proposed alternative management scenarios while respecting budget limitations, and analyze vegetation results using the Unified Ecological Departure metric (Provencher et al. 2021a). h) TNC will write a final report using the same template submitted to WRI for project WRI #4823 (introduction, methods, system by system result analysis with annual treatment prescriptions, and maps of treatment implementation).

Project Narrative The Boulder Mountain area, including the Fremont River and Escalante Ranger Districts of US Forest Service (USFS), is considered a top state priority focal conservation area by WRI and The Nature Conservancy. A concern of the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources is the decline of the local mule deer population, perhaps caused by the degrading condition of aspen stands. WRI and The Nature Conservancy want to take advantage of USFS proposed NEPA planning at the Fremont River Ranger District (Fishlake National Forest), and anticipated NEPA planning at the Escalante Ranger District (Dixie National Forest), to map vegetation with high resolution and accuracy, and to identify with quantitative models the most feasible of several alternative management scenarios that will achieve the greatest conservation outcomes, including the reversal of the current mule deer population decline on Boulder Mountain. Landscape Conservation Forecasting, used by The Nature Conservancy in several USFS, BLM, and NPS projects in Utah and Nevada (Low et al. 2010; Provencher et al. 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016a&b, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021b; Tuhy et al. 2010a&b, 2014), will be used to map vegetation at high spatial resolution and compare the ecological benefits of USFS NEPA alternative scenarios in FY2022-2023

Future Management The purpose of this project is to start an integrated mapping of ecological systems, assessment of forest, range, and riparian condition, and development and testing of management scenarios. Management scenarios will consist of on-the-ground actions in forest, shrubland management, and riparian management to demonstrate where forecasted actions can be shown to be most effective for natural resources condition at the lowest cost.