Project Details

The latest five-year review for this species (USFWS 2016) focused on habitat loss to urban development and OHV damage as the primary threats. It emphasized habitat protection from disturbance as the principal management objective. The only biotic threat identified as imminent was loss of native pollinators. Invasive species such as annual bromes were still considered a potential future threat of unknown impact, and herbivory and disease were not considered threats. 
In 2018, we initiated census and monitoring activities across four dwarf bear poppy populations utilizing UAV (drone) imagery analysis (Rominger and Meyer 2019, Rominger et al. in press).  This followed a major dwarf bear poppy recruitment event in spring 2017. While we have not yet quantified all the data sets, we already have strong evidence of major differences among populations in both mortality rates and reproductive output. Observations both from the imagery and on the ground implicate rodent herbivory, predispersal seed predation by insects, and pathogen-caused disease as factors in increased mortality and reduced reproductive success at one population (White Dome). At the same time, we have observed an explosive increase in annual bromes at this population. 
There is a critical need to determine the level of these negative impacts across multiple populations, and whether the impacts occur only in association with massive increases in annual bromes in adjacent areas. We also need to know whether impacts are weather-related and therefore likely transient or whether they represent longer-term population trends. Annual brome invasion into closely adjacent areas may be driving indirect negative impacts in poppy populations that occupy largely uninvaded sectors of the gypsum habitat. If this proves to be the case, management to prevent extinction will need to shift to elimination of annual brome infestations in the gypsum environment.

Provide evidence about the nature of the problem and the need to address it. Identify the significance of the problem using a variety of data sources. For example, if a habitat restoration project is being proposed to benefit greater sage-grouse, describe the existing plant community characteristics that limit habitat value for greater sage-grouse and identify the changes needed for habitat improvement.

The work proposed here is a continuation of our ongoing studies of factors affecting dwarf bear poppy population dynamics. Our overarching hypothesis here is that increased threats from herbivory and disease within poppy-occupied habitat are associated with annual brome infestation in closely adjacent areas, and that the threats will therefore be greater in populations suffering high levels of brome invasion. The study will include re-evaluation, with new objectives in mind, of existing data and imagery (as well as data and imagery to be obtained in spring 2021). We will also carry out an additional year of more targeted imagery and data acquisition in spring 2022. This will provide us with four years of drone imagery and associated data. Our proposed one-year study is intended to meet the following objectives:
1) Create drone imagery-based maps of annual brome invasion into different habitats within the gypsum environment (to be completed summer 2021) at two populations with differing levels of brome invasion (White Dome and Beehive Dome), and determine which habitats within the gypsum environment are conducive to annual brome success at each population and which habitats are still contributing to their exclusion. 
2) Combine maps of brome distribution with our previously developed census maps that show poppy distribution across the gypsum environment at each population; use these to identify the degree of overlap between brome habitat and poppy habitat, as well as to locate areas where brome infestations are in close proximity to poppy subpopulations.
3) Carry out preliminary field and laboratory studies to determine the causal agents of rodent herbivory,  insect herbivory, predispersal seed predation, and pathogen-caused disease impacts at the whole plant and inflorescence levels, and quantify the impacts of these threats at the two populations.
4) Re-evaluate monitoring imagery and field data across years for both populations to quantify the spatiotemporal pattern and extent of rodent (i.e., pocket gopher and/or antelope ground squirrel) whole plant herbivory, and examine its relationship with proximity to brome infestations.
5) Synthesize results of studies through spring 2022 to evaluate the hypothesis that the observed increase in threat level from annual brome invasion, herbivory and disease is associated with an unusual pattern of inter-annual variation in winter-spring precipitation and is therefore likely to be transient. The alternative hypothesis is that this increase in threat level is part of a long-term trend that is of more pressing concern for dwarf bear poppy conservation.

Provide an overall goal for the project and then provide clear, specific and measurable objectives (outcomes) to be accomplished by the proposed actions. If possible, tie to one or more of the public benefits UWRI is providing.

LOCATION: Justify the proposed location of this project over other areas, include publicly scrutinized planning/recovery documents that list this area as a priority, remote sensing modeling that show this area is a good candidate for restoration, wildlife migration information and other data that help justify this project's location.

TIMING: Justify why this project should be implemented at this time. For example, Is the project area at risk of crossing an ecological or other threshold wherein future restoration would become more difficult, cost prohibitive, or even impossible.

List management plans where this project will address an objective or strategy in the plan. Describe how the project area overlaps the objective or strategy in the plan and the relevance of the project to the successful implementation of those plans. It is best to provide this information in a list format with the description immediately following the plan objective or strategy.

If applicable, detail how the proposed project will significantly reduce the risk of fuel loading and/or continuity of hazardous fuels including the use of fire-wise species in re-seeding operations. Describe the value of any features being protected by reducing the risk of fire. Values may include; communities at risk, permanent infrastructure, municipal watersheds, campgrounds, critical wildlife habitat, etc. Include the size of the area where fuels are being reduced and the distance from the feature(s) at risk.

Describe how the project has the potential to improve water quality and/or increase water quantity, both over the short and long term. Address run-off, erosion, soil infiltration, and flooding, if applicable.

Description of efforts, both completed and planned, to bring the proposed action into compliance with any and all cultural resource, NEPA, ESA, etc. requirements. If compliance is not required enter "not applicable" and explain why not it is not required.

Objective 1. To map the distribution of annual brome cover at White Dome and Beehive Dome will require drone image capture over each census area in spring and ideally again in summer to determine brome cover through color differencing (NDVI) methods, which measure the cover of green vegetation. By carrying out image capture at two dates it is possible to separate exotic annual cover, which loses greenness in the summer, from perennial vegetation, which retains some greenness. A possible difficulty with applying this method in 2021 is a dry spring with little or no annual brome cover. If this proves to be the case we will develop a method for evaluating past brome cover (2020) using the color of the litter patches that remain in place. Drone imagery will be captured and processed as described in Rominger and Meyer (2019) and analysis will be carried out in ArcPro GIS software.

Once we have maps of brome cover in each area, we will overlay these on our previously developed maps of soil surface color type at each area (Rominger and Meyer 2019) to determine the degree of brome invasion as a function of surface color type. Poppy relative abundance was highly correlated with this habitat index in census imagery from 2018.

Objective 2.  It will be a straightforward process in to overlay the brome cover maps at each population onto the poppy census maps developed from the 2018 census (Rominger and Meyer 2019) to determine overlap between poppy-occupied habitat and brome-occupied habitat as well as proximity of areas of poppy occupancy to brome infestations.

Objective 3.

On-the-ground studies will include a continuation of the annual monitoring protocol (described in Rominger et al. in press) in late spring 2022.  This includes obtaining drone imagery of monitoring plots at each of seven populations and carrying out on-the-ground reproductive output evaluation at each population. This will provide data on recruitment, survivorship, growth, and reproductive output over the period since spring 2021, and will also provide the imagery needed to evaluate current-year rodent herbivory at the two principal study sites in comparison to herbivory impacts in previous years (see below).

In addition, we will perform field studies to quantify disease and insect predation both on inflorescences and at the whole plant level at the two principal study sites. Preliminary work on pathogen identification and pathogenicity testing is already underway, and this spring (2021) we will focus on identifying the organisms responsible for inflorescence and fruit damage. This will position us for a more systematic approach to quantification of the damage due to these threats in 2022. We will also characterize the rodent community at each site and examine rodent abundance and spatial distribution in relation to brome infested habitat and poppy habitat with live trapping using mark recapture methods.

In the laboratory, we will continue our studies of the fungal pathogens responsible for poppy foliar diseases that can cause whole plant mortality as well as massive fruit abortion. As we process fruit collections from the monitoring reproductive output study, we will identify any insect herbivores and predispersal insect seed predators we find and will also quantify the observed damage.

Objective 4. Our working hypothesis on rodent herbivory is that areas closer to extensive brome infestations will have more rodent herbivory, both within a population and across populations with different levels of brome infestation. To quantify mortality from rodent herbivory, we will utilize drone imagery over multiple years in monitoring plots to attempt to determine the cause of mortality from one year to the next. We have already determined that it is relatively easy to detect mortality caused by pocket gophers, which burrow underneath the plants and pull them into their burrows by the roots, leaving an obvious hole that is visible in drone imagery. Ground squirrel-caused mortality has also been observed; in this case the plant is chewed off at the taproot from above and left on the surface, where it can remain visible for some time. Plants left standing in place after death and still visible can be assumed not killed by rodent herbivores.  Plants that are missing would have to be recorded as mortality due to unknown causes, but even with this missing data we should be able to quantify relative levels of herbivory and possibly to detect patterns of herbivory as a function of distance to a brome infestation. These analyses will complement data obtained from the trapping study.

Objective 5. By summer 2022 we will have completed all the fieldwork and image analysis and will be able to synthesize the results from five years of monitoring to examine patterns of mortality and reproductive output by population and year. We will use our more detailed data sets from 2022 to evaluate the alternative hypotheses that the new threats we have documented are either causing transient effects due to unusual interannual variation in precipitation or that they are likely to have more long term negative impacts on one or more dwarf bear poppy populations.

Describe the actions, activities, tasks to be implemented as part of the proposed project; how these activities will be carried out, equipment to be used, when, and by whom.

Describe plans to monitor for project success and achievement of stated objectives. Include details on type of monitoring (vegetation, wildlife, etc.), schedule, assignments and how the results of these monitoring efforts will be reported and/or uploaded to this project page. If needed, upload detailed plans in the "attachments" section.

List any and all partners (agencies, organizations, NGO's, private landowners) that support the proposal and/or have been contacted and included in the planning and design of the proposed project. Describe efforts to gather input and include these agencies, landowners, permitees, sportsman groups, researchers, etc. that may be interested/affected by the proposed project. Partners do not have to provide funding or in-kind services to a project to be listed.

Detail future methods or techniques (including administrative actions) that will be implemented to help in accomplishing the stated objectives and to insure the long term success/stability of the proposed project. This may include: post-treatment grazing rest and/or management plans/changes, wildlife herd/species management plan changes, ranch plans, conservation easements or other permanent protection plans, resource management plans, forest plans, etc.

Potential for the proposed action to improve quality or quantity of sustainable uses such as grazing, timber harvest, biomass utilization, recreation, etc. Grazing improvements may include actions to improve forage availability and/or distribution of livestock.