Completion Form

2024

Final Methods 
a)            New ecological systems and vegetation class map layered delivered by contractor Spatial Solutions Inc by June 30th, 2022 to TNC, UDWR, and USFS will be a) translated from short-hand field codes to ST-Sim (simulation software) model codes (names and 8-digit numbers); b) quality controlled during the translation process with additional verification of suspicious vegetation assignments, if needed; and c) resample from Spot 6/7 native satellite resolution of 1.5m to either 25m or 30m resolution using TNC's Python script to resample while retaining small patch systems and vegetation classes valuable to wildlife species. Resampling is needed stay within hardware and software memory limitations. The resample map layers and the land ownership map resampled at the same scale of 25 or 30-m will be directly uploaded into ST-Sim; 
b)            To conduct simulations fully representing the desired complexity of livestock grazing, USFS will be suppling shape files that TNC will convert to rasters to be uploaded into ST-Sim. TNC's experience with such grazing refinements is that they take time to assemble and translate into something useful for modeling. While the request for this information was requested in Year #1, TNC fully expect to receive some shape files after July 1st, 2022. Uploading and creating a reasonable grazing submodel in ST-Sim is time consuming and will be approached as a partitioning of total AUMs or heads of livestock using ST-Sim Target Attributes menu. In addition to grazing rasters, all other spatial constraints raster not added to the model in Year 1 will be incorporated such as Digital Elevation Models, fire ignition rasters, sensitive species protection zones, no management zones, and so on.   
c)            After assembly of the ST-Sim database, TNC will spatially run 20 climate-based replicates of the "custodial" (i.e., do-nothing proposed action alternative) scenario for 35 years at most.

d)            The first partner management workshop will hopefully be conducted in either Escalante or Loa/Torrey area depending on the choice of partners. TNC management, mapping, GIS, and modeling staff will organize and lead/moderate the meeting where agency line officers and specialists are needed and other stakeholders welcome up to a maximum of 30 participants. The workshop covers much needed information and concepts, some difficult, and will require 2.5 continuous days. 
e)            Using workshop data and prescription of management scenarios, TNC staff will populate the treatment implementation menu of ST-Sim and run all draft scenarios using only 10 replicates (20 replicates might be used for final report results).  
f)            The second partner management workshop will be conducted in Escalante.   TNC management, mapping, GIS, and modeling staff will organize and lead/moderate the meeting where agency line officers and specialists are needed and other stakeholders welcome up to a maximum of 25 participants. The primary and most time-consuming objective is to review draft results from scenarios and revise treatment implementation rates, if needed. 
g)            Using the revised treatment rates of each proposed management alternative, TNC will run the final version of proposed alternative management scenarios while respecting budget limitations, and analyze vegetation results using the Unified Ecological Departure metric (Provencher et al. 2021a).
h)            TNC will write a final report using the same template submitted to WRI for project WRI #4823 (introduction, methods, system by system result analysis with annual treatment prescriptions, and maps of treatment implementation).

Project Narrative 
The Boulder Mountain area, including the Fremont River and Escalante Ranger Districts of US Forest Service (USFS), is considered a top state priority focal conservation area by WRI and The Nature Conservancy. A concern of the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources is the decline of the local mule deer population, perhaps caused by the degrading condition of aspen stands. WRI and The Nature Conservancy want to take advantage of USFS proposed NEPA planning at the Fremont River Ranger District (Fishlake National Forest), and anticipated NEPA planning at the Escalante Ranger District (Dixie National Forest), to map vegetation with high resolution and accuracy, and to identify with quantitative models the most feasible of several alternative management scenarios that will achieve the greatest conservation outcomes, including the reversal of the current mule deer population decline on Boulder Mountain. 
Landscape Conservation Forecasting, used by The Nature Conservancy in several USFS, BLM, and NPS projects in Utah and Nevada (Low et al. 2010; Provencher et al. 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016a&b, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021b; Tuhy et al. 2010a&b, 2014), will be used to map vegetation at high spatial resolution and compare the ecological benefits of USFS NEPA alternative scenarios in FY2022-2023

Linda Whitham

08/30/2023 15:29:28